There is both good and bad news regarding the coronavirus. The good news is it is not as dangerous as the SARs virus. The death toll with SARs was 6.6% of those infected. With coronavirus the death rate so far is 2.2%. Those in the US and other countries appear to be recovering. In China, those dying are primarily older people with compromised immune systems.
The bad news is the incubation period for coronavirus could be as long as 14 days. Apparently, infected individuals can transmit the disease to others for up to 2 weeks without showing symptoms. It is highly contagious. A bus driver in Japan who carried persons from Wuhan contacted the virus as did others who had never visited China. The virus has already infected more people, over 6,000 at latest count, compared to 5,327 total cases of SARs. It would not be surprising to see the final toll of infections reach ten times the current amount with deaths amounting to 1,500.
The implications of what we know so far suggests the main threat is to those in China and its immediate vicinity. As a result, it will take a serious one-time toll on the Chinese economy and businesses that rely on China.
The impact on the US is likely to be similar to what happened when Trump imposed tariffs. This means businesses will quickly work readjusting their supply chains from China to other sources. With what we know at this time, I expect the real growth rate in the US will slow by less than ½% this spring from what it would have been. This should still allow for a growth rate close to 2½% in the months immediately ahead.
Blog with Dr. G
A candid look at pertinent current events that play a role in our daily lives.